Pre-tourney Rankings
Mountain West
2015-16


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
53 San Diego St. 26.3%   23 - 9 16 - 2 23 - 9 16 - 2 +9.8      -0.2 178 +9.9 3 64.3 307 +9.3 61 +13.8 1
94 Boise St. 0.0%   18 - 12 11 - 7 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5.9      +3.0 97 +2.8 99 72.5 110 +5.1 101 +4.5 3
102 Fresno St. 100.0%   13   23 - 9 13 - 5 23 - 9 13 - 5 +5.1      +2.0 122 +3.1 95 71.7 133 +7.9 78 +7.6 2
115 UNLV 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 10 16 - 15 8 - 10 +3.4      -0.9 194 +4.2 66 80.6 14 +2.8 126 +1.0 6
116 New Mexico 0.0%   17 - 15 10 - 8 17 - 15 10 - 8 +3.2      +3.1 95 +0.1 175 74.9 70 +2.5 132 +3.6 4
133 Utah St. 0.0%   14 - 15 7 - 11 14 - 15 7 - 11 +2.2      +4.9 62 -2.6 242 67.2 247 +1.2 149 -0.7 9
141 Nevada 0.0%   17 - 13 10 - 8 17 - 13 10 - 8 +1.8      -4.2 283 +6.0 37 76.9 53 +3.6 118 +3.5 5
142 Colorado St. 0.0%   16 - 16 8 - 10 16 - 16 8 - 10 +1.4      +4.9 61 -3.5 268 70.4 162 +1.0 151 +0.5 7
164 Wyoming 0.0%   12 - 18 7 - 11 12 - 18 7 - 11 -0.3      +2.5 108 -2.8 251 63.6 322 -0.8 172 -0.6 8
237 Air Force 0.0%   12 - 18 5 - 13 12 - 18 5 - 13 -4.6      -3.8 276 -0.9 193 68.0 232 -1.9 193 -3.6 10
248 San Jose St. 0.0%   6 - 22 4 - 14 6 - 22 4 - 14 -5.0      -5.6 309 +0.6 161 73.5 91 -7.1 275 -4.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 1.0 100.0
Boise St. 3.0 100.0
Fresno St. 2.0 100.0
UNLV 6.0 100.0
New Mexico 4.0 100.0
Utah St. 8.0 100.0
Nevada 4.0 100.0
Colorado St. 6.0 100.0
Wyoming 8.0 100.0
Air Force 10.0 100.0
San Jose St. 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 16 - 2 100.0
Boise St. 11 - 7 100.0
Fresno St. 13 - 5 100.0
UNLV 8 - 10 100.0
New Mexico 10 - 8 100.0
Utah St. 7 - 11 100.0
Nevada 10 - 8 100.0
Colorado St. 8 - 10 100.0
Wyoming 7 - 11 100.0
Air Force 5 - 13 100.0
San Jose St. 4 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 100.0% 100.0
Boise St.
Fresno St.
UNLV
New Mexico
Utah St.
Nevada
Colorado St.
Wyoming
Air Force
San Jose St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 26.3% 0.0% 26.3% 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.3 18.3 1.1 0.0 73.7 26.3%
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.0 2.9 34.0 57.1 6.0
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 26.3% 17.9% 16.9% 6.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 15.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 73.7 26.3
1st Round 100.0% 1.2 83.1 16.9
2nd Round 20.2% 0.2 79.8 19.3 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6 0.0
Elite Eight 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Four 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0